Home buyer activity and prices growth have moved from the higher-value inner and middle-ring suburbs to the outer suburbs.
New dwelling construction – particularly apartments – continue to rise, but in particular inner-city pockets and the CBD, rather than across the city.
Median house prices are forecast to fall by 1 per cent by June 2019 – after a minimal 2 per cent rise in 2016-17 and a three per cent fall in the following two years.
Emerging oversupply means the median unit price is expected to fall by 8 per cent in the three years.
Sydney
Price growth slowed in the past financial year after three years of strong price rises driven by investors. Minimal growth is expected in this financial year.
A growing number of dwelling completions would alleviate some pent-up demand in the market, Mr Zigomanis said, and slow price growth would also discourage investors.
After growing a further 2 per cent this financial year, BIS Shrapnel predict the median house price will fall 3 per cent over 2017-18 and 2018-19. As a result, the median house price in June 2019 will be 1 per cent lower than today’s level.
The median unit price is forecast to fall 5 per cent by June 2019.
Brisbane
The best prospects for house price growth over the next three years are Brisbane and Hobart, where the median is predicted to rise 7 per cent by June 2019. The median unit price in Brisbane is forecast to fall by 6 per cent.
New apartment construction was booming – particularly in inner Brisbane – and the apartment sector was expected to move into oversupply, Mr Zigomanis said.
However, some prices growth is expected for houses because it is relatively affordable and is in under supply.
